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Calculated Shoot Potential

Started by AFTERMATH, September 21, 2009, 08:24:26 PM

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AFTERMATH

Quote from: Fred on September 17, 2009, 07:10:57 AM
    I posted the following over on the Indiana Board. Just so they don't have an unfair advantage over IL this coming year, I am herewith posting it here:





     This weekend in New Mexico (whose AS motto is "not bigger - just better!") we explored how to measure just how big your Appleseed machine can get - in other words, if you know what "the Appleseed potential" is in your state, you'll have a better handle on how fast you can go, and how big you can get - and maybe be able to better set some intermediate goals.

     Here's how it works:

    First, attempt to measure your state's "Appleseed capacity". What is the upper limit on the number of Appleseeds you can have in a year?

    Understanding any numbers you come up with at first will be very preliminary, and understanding also they will be constantly 'firming up' as the months go by - yet these numbers will be very important to know. Capacity too small? (It always will be!) Then you need to increase the capacity (read: DARs). Capacity way excessive to what you are doing now? Then work to get more AS going, and more IBCs to train the instructors you'll be needing to run all those new AS.

    So here's how the "first ever" AS capacity numbers were derived this last weekend in NM:

    13 locations, each averaging 8-9 locations per year, indicated the current "Appleseed capacity" in NM is 112 Appleseeds per annum.

    This is clearly a 'ballpark' number - a number which will be refined considerably over the coming months - but a number that's good to know, as it guides you on how many AS you should be thinking of, and how many instructors (read: IBCs) you'll be needing. Granted, we counted only those locations we know or are pretty sure we can have AS at, and figured the max annual number per location based on weather considerations (too hot in summer, too snowy in winter) - so that adding new locations/DARs will both increase capacity numbers and allow us to firm up the potential in the state.

    We also listed several "potential" locations, but did not count them until we know we can have AS there (you can choose to count ALL locations in your state, if you want to see what "ultimate AS potential" there is, to spur your Appleseeders with...again, this is likely to be a "running total" which will be continually refined.)

     We also ballparked range capacity of each location, coming up with a total figure, all ranges, of 500 - which means if we have a "New Mexico Appleseed Weekend" - scheduling an AS at each of the 13 current AS locations on the same weekend - an idea we also broached, which is the state equivalent of the national "April 19th" events -  we could have that many ASers potentially on the line at one time in NM.

     So currently, the "maximum capacity" on any weekend in NM is 13 Appleseeds, with as many as 500 Appleseeders on the firing line...

     Here's how that numerical caculation could be done for your state:

         Site                           # potential AS/yr              Range capacity

       Groom Lake                            8                                    40
       Denton R & P                         10                                   65
           ...                                    ...                                   ...
       Fenton Mountain R & P             9                                    30

     Add up column one for number of sites you could potentially have on your "state-wide AS weekend" event; Add up column two for your state's potential max number of AS/yr; add up column three for max capacity for your state-wide AS weekend.

Static vs. Dynamic Thinking...

     It's always important to keep your thinking clear, and understand no numbers about this program are fixed.

     112 potential AS in NM? That's a number that's only gonna go up, for sure. But it's a distant enough (in the future - say, at least a couple of years) that for now we simply continue to refine the number as time goes by, and we work out intermediate yearly goals designed to take us to that ultimate number (whatever it will turn out to be).

     Understanding, as we all do (hopefully), that the ultimate measure of the success of this program will be when we have an AS every month in every county of this nation...

     Don't have enough instructors to handle a load like that? That's "don't have enough instructors", NOW.

     IBCs will take care of the growth of your state Appleseeds. If they don't, nearby states will contribute instructors to help out (likewise, if your instructor growth allows, you'll be helping them out...). If you have six Red Hats in your state NOW, you'll have 12 or 15 or 20 - next year, this time. Worse thing you want is to have them sitting around, without state Appleseeds to go to (or, going to other states to find "work"    ).

     Some of you will not be "in" to this kind of thinking and numerical planning. Not a problem, so long as you're simply willing to "max" everything as much as you can - setting up sites, training instructors, promoting for more students.

     But I suggest this kind of analysis, if you're willing to do it - and to do it understanding it's for guidance only, and that the numbers will undergo refinement in the course of the coming year - will derive benefits you won't expect, when you begin the process. (And, understand, it can be fun to "play with the numbers", and game various outcomes.)

     For example, you may find "seat of the pants" thinking and planning isn't really good enough. If you don't know the "Appleseed capacity" of your state - even the "ballpark" one - you won't have a handle on what your potential is in your state.

     And, if you do this kind of analysis, it may point out weak spots in your thinking and plans - like you're under-achieving on the number of AS you should be having - in other words, you can and should be thinking of a LOT more Appleseeds next year than "commonsense" thinking would suggest - or you're gonna need to bump up instructor recruitment and training, if you are realistically going to meet your goals. In other words, "working the numbers" can help you set goals, and point out areas you may need to beef up in order to make them.

     Maybe I'm saying, rather than be the scoped 30-30 owner who, going down to 25m to check his sighter group, and finding it two inches low, who says, "I'd better go up TWO clicks", you should be the rifleman who, finding his 25m sighter group two inches low, says, "I'd better go up 8 MOA..."

     I don't engage in this process myself because I'm a dreamer, or a "player with numbers", or because it's an ultimate waste of time.

     I do it because it helps light up the dark path ahead, which means it helps illuminate and guide me in the coming year.

     In other words, it's quite useful.

Back to the Subject...

     OK, we've got some preliminary numbers on "State Appleseed Capacity", both a yearly total, and an idea of how big a "State-wide Appleseed Weekend" would be.

     If we know we can theoretically have a LOT of Appleseeds, what's our next worry? Why, how many we should set as our goal for the coming year - right?

     And that will be based on a realistic assessment of how many AS you can have at each of your locations (remember, we figured the "max" earlier - and you may not have gotten any or all of your current locations up to - or even near - that max). So, while the max may be 112, in NM a "real" number was determined to be "27 AS next year" (FYI, there will be about 13 this year - so one criterion - doubling each year - is met by that number).

     But life exists to be challenging, so the number "36" was thown out for next year. Wouldn't it be great, to nearly TRIPLE in a year? Note: you should always make your goals exciting, not hum-drum - so that when you meet them - and you are quite likely to - there's a solid feeling of real accomplishment vs. the feeling you get when punching a time clock...

     But even that number "36" might be a result of "static" thinking. We don't know how many of the locations we'll be able to persuade (or AS will itself excite them) to host multiple Appleseeds next year. It's possible all of them will be willing to "max out" for next year. But a more likely number would be 50% of capacity as a ballpark number for planning purposes. Say, around 50-60.

     The guys in NM, reading this, will blanch, no doubt. But if they go back and look at the numbers, after reading this entire thread, I think they will agree, not necessarily on 50-60, but that "36" is way too few to set as a goal. But I'm willing to bet, if they find the numbers below reasonable, and are willing to work hard to meet them (I have no doubt of that), we'll have 50 or more AS in NM next year. And if we don't, it won't be for lack of trying. And if we don't, we'll be able to put our finger on the problem, and get it solved during the course of the year, laying the groundwork for a future doubling in NM in 2011 to near triple-digits.

Step Two: Making Instructors

      Next in this process of "organizing" your state Appleseed machine, of getting a handle on the AS capacity of your state, and of setting exciting, not hum-drum goals, is - what?

      Why, instructors, of course - right?

      You can't expand without growing your instructor base.

      Take your goal for next year in Appleseeds - here, it's 36 - and figure, on average, one RH and two IITs per event (sure, some will have more, some may have a bit less, depending on how big the AS is - but this will ballpark it for ya).

       So, in NM, there'll be a need for 36 "RH weekends", and 72 "IIT weekends".

       Figure your average instructor will be able to do 9 AS/year (hopefully, more - like 10 or 12!).

      Now, using these numbers, you know your instructor needs for next year: 4 RHs can handle 36 AS, easily. And 8 IITs should be able to handle the IIT end of things.  Heck, looks like, with 4 RHs in NM currently, and more than 8 IITs, there's NO NEED FOR ANY MORE INSTRUCTORS IN NM FOR THE COMING YEAR!

       Now, what would this suggest, if we train a bunch of new instructors in NM over the next year?

       To me, it suggests we'd have "excess instructor capacity" in NM, and we'd therefore need to up our AS goals for the coming year, just to have enough AS to keep them from sitting around, frustrated with nothing to do.

      To me, this suggests you frame your planning for next year's quota of AS not only by site/host capacity in your state, but by factoring in the number of instructors you have both now, and can train in the coming year.

       Understanding we should all feel our old friend the Time Monkey on our backs, so we want to move this program as fast as we can.

       In the case of NM, we talked about 8 IBCs next year (4 of them on 3-day holiday weekends in Jan, Feb, May, and Sept) with an average of 5 new IITs from each, for a total of 40 new instructors.

       I don't know the exact count of IITs currently in NM (and there are a few who for various reasons are not gonna be advancing in the program to RH status) - but let's figure there's ten pre-"red hat" IITs right now in NM.

       By the Dec/Jan time frame, if we can provide the training opportunities (AS in NM or nearby states) EVERY ONE of these should be a RH.

       For practical purposes, you can figure, in NM, more than a dozen RHs available for next year - right at the beginning of the year.

      Now, let's flip that around, and see if we can figure a reasonable goal for NM AS next year, based on instructor capacity, not site/host capacity.

      And let's include those 40 recruited and trained during the year, and assume half will "red hat" before the year is over - prob about mid-year, most of them.

     Ten new Red Hats by year's end, each doing ten AS next year, plus twenty new Red Hats by mid-year 2010, each averaging five AS next year would support another 200 Appleseeds next year. (Let's not get all excited by the preciseness of the "exact" numbers - they are not precise. But they are good enough for planning purposes.)

      Good grief! Looks to me we could "max out" NM, instructor-wise - next year! Even using the preliminary numbers we have right now.

      Based on some assumptions, of course - like 8 IBCs generating 40 new IITs next year in NM. Can it be done? I don't know - but if we don't try, I KNOW - and you KNOW - it can't be done.

      Planning for the next "Appleseed year" in a state is "the state version" of an regular AS, where the course of your progress and exactly what you do over the weekend is to a great extent measured and controlled by the progress of your students.

      In other words, an Appleseed is an unfolding project, with the immediate shape, form, and frame dependent on exactly what the shape, form, and frame was in the prior interval of time. And you cannot predict that precisely, as you cannot predict the response/performance of your students, in advance.

      Likewise, you cannot predict how close in numbers or schedule you'll be able to meet your yearly goals for next year's AS in your state.

      But you've learned from this program that we should never think small, and the program itself has convinced all of us that its power to grow seems so far not to be limited - so it would behoove each of us to get out of the way and let it grow.

     And we do this by not setting goals too low.

     Low goals can dampen the potential growth.

     Who among us wants to do that?

     Note: This post should not to be taken as an effort to 'work everyone to death'. I simply want you SCs to take a hard look at your state and develop some numbers.

     For better understanding of your state.

     Just as we measure our progress toward "rifleman" by numbers (scores on the AQT) - and just as we can measure where we are in that process by knowing those numbers - so we can measure our progress in this program by numbers.

     Better, we can encourage progress by numbers.

     And by making numbers work for us.

     Try "running some numbers" in the quiet and privacy of your home. See what you think, once you get into it.

     It's fun.

     It's entertaining.

     And it's enlightening.
     
     Now, a couple of other matters which came out of New Mexico this weekend:

A "Statewide Appleseed" Event

     This could mobilize/motivate ASers in your state - a state-wide AHOD, max effort with every AS site in the state hosting an AS on the same weekend. In NM, they suggested May would be a good date. Your state would prob pick a different month.

     The idea would be to mirror the "national" AHOD (4/19, of course) with a state-wide event.

     There's no question, something like this can add some "excitement" to a state AS program (I prefer to add "more" in front of excitement...  )

DARs

    In the course of "sizing up New Mexico" we found three potential DARs added to our "potentials" list of Appleseed locations.

     We all know how important DARs are, and how they can provide a real 'bump' to the program in a state.

    There's only two ways you get them:

          Ask your instructors to canvass all their contacts - frineds, relatives, co-worders, neighbors, anyone - to see who knows someone with a possible DAR.

          Ask at every Appleseed, after explaining what a DAR is, and how easy it is to have one.

     In the course of tallying up your list of sites in your state inventory, be sure to add any potential DARs. If you have none, leave the space next to "DARs" blank as a constant reminder to be looking for 'em...

    PS: This weekend, in a secret meeting in Rockford, G69 and Pappy and ff and I worked out some numbers along the above lines relating to Illinois's "Appleseed capacity" in 2010.

   Those numbers were not 'good news'. Looks like New Mexico, 46th in population, with an Appleseed program less than a year old, could outperform IL next year - not by a little, either. Does TWICE as much sound good? :)

    But the analysis suggested ways and places to focus to force the growth of the IL AS - which I bet we'd all like to do.

    Check with G69 for details (altho I bet he'll be throwing the results at you in the coming months...).
"We intend to produce men who are able to light a fire for Liberty in men's minds, and make them the finest rifle marksmanship Instructors on the planet." - Son of Martha

"Tyrants rise and fall, but tyranny lasts forever." -Me

[What kind of megalomaniac quotes himself?]

Fred


    Okay, so who's gonna fill in the numbers for Minnesota?

    I would bet you guys could set some records next year - big time! O0
"Ready to eat dirt and sweat bore solvent?" - Ask me how to become an RWVA volunteer!

      "...but he that stands it now, deserves the thanks of man and woman alike..."   Paine

     "If you can read this without a silly British accent, thank a Revolutionary War veteran" - Anon.

     "We have it in our power to begin the world over again" - Thomas Paine

     What about it, do-nothings? You heard the man, jump on in...

AFTERMATH

#2
Well; I'll start.

Here's what I think we can do for 2010.  For those that may be skeptical; remember my Winona Riflemen prediction. ;)

Location        #of events     capacity

Winona               2                 29           68
La Crescent         4                 50?         200
Elk River              1                 50          50
Marshall              2                 ?           ?
Duluth                3                 ?           ?
Hinckley              4                 30          120
Oakdale..............1+.................50..........50
Princeton............Whisker.............................
Gopher Rifle & Revolver.............Whisker.............................
Cambridge...........Aftermath..........................
____________________________________
6 locations        20+ events                     xxx**

**xxx potential Appleseeders in 2010 


We definately need more Instructors!
Riflemen! MUSTER UP!!!
"We intend to produce men who are able to light a fire for Liberty in men's minds, and make them the finest rifle marksmanship Instructors on the planet." - Son of Martha

"Tyrants rise and fall, but tyranny lasts forever." -Me

[What kind of megalomaniac quotes himself?]

Sven

You betcha, I am working on ingratiating myself with the board a the Oakdale Gun Club, hope to have good things to talk about soon. :)
"I was spotting one day and M2 was hitting baseball sized dirt clods at 300yds away. DON'T F/K with an old man with a Garand... " RED DAWN

Fred


    If you'll look at Aftermath's analysis, you'll quickly understand the fastest way to ramp up the program is to work on bumping up the number of AS/location...

    A'math, you'll (or someone) will also have to run projections on instructor recruitment and training, to balance instructors against number of AS.

    Heck, it could be you'll recruit so many instructors that that alone could be motivational in getting more AS set up - as we have to keep them employed, right? :)

    Or if you have too many AS on the sched, that could be motivational to set up more IBCs and get students signed up for them...

    See, one thing drives the other - and Appleseed thrives! O0

    But promotion - always promotion - is needed, to fill all those slots on the firing line...
"Ready to eat dirt and sweat bore solvent?" - Ask me how to become an RWVA volunteer!

      "...but he that stands it now, deserves the thanks of man and woman alike..."   Paine

     "If you can read this without a silly British accent, thank a Revolutionary War veteran" - Anon.

     "We have it in our power to begin the world over again" - Thomas Paine

     What about it, do-nothings? You heard the man, jump on in...

Sven

Went to the board meeting for the Oakdale Gun Club this evening.  Got there early so I could get on the agenda but Whisker beat me to it, apparently he talked with the club president before the meeting but it was good that I was there when it came up because there were a number of questions about the program and what we were looking for in terms of facilities and ranges.  The club's board seems to be supportive of having an event there in May but are looking for more information.  The club's VP will be getting the requirements to me via e-mail and I will see her again on Sunday.  A couple of the board members came up to me and asked about upcoming events and one expressed a desire to become an instructor. 8)  I passed out a number of the magazine reprints to board members and they were very receptive.  Nothings official yet but I guess I would start planning on another May Appleseed in the heart of the Twin Cities metro area. ;)
"I was spotting one day and M2 was hitting baseball sized dirt clods at 300yds away. DON'T F/K with an old man with a Garand... " RED DAWN

AFTERMATH

Awesome!

Hinckley is on; send them there!
Oct. 31st-Nov. 1st
"We intend to produce men who are able to light a fire for Liberty in men's minds, and make them the finest rifle marksmanship Instructors on the planet." - Son of Martha

"Tyrants rise and fall, but tyranny lasts forever." -Me

[What kind of megalomaniac quotes himself?]

Sven

I am planning on it and my daughter has expressed an interest in going so my LTR will get a workout.   O0
"I was spotting one day and M2 was hitting baseball sized dirt clods at 300yds away. DON'T F/K with an old man with a Garand... " RED DAWN

TheDud

I think that once we get the ball rolling in Duluth, we will be able to have as many AS shoots as northlanders will sign up for.  Our club never has other outside groups using the ranges (some CCW classes about 4 times a year, and the Coasties and DHS guys shoot on our range once in a while) so the schedule really is pretty open.




AFTERMATH

I believe that's pretty-much how Hinckley is going to work out!
Will I see you there?
"We intend to produce men who are able to light a fire for Liberty in men's minds, and make them the finest rifle marksmanship Instructors on the planet." - Son of Martha

"Tyrants rise and fall, but tyranny lasts forever." -Me

[What kind of megalomaniac quotes himself?]

Fred

Quote from: Sven on September 24, 2009, 01:12:59 AM
Went to the board meeting for the Oakdale Gun Club this evening...The club's board seems to be supportive of having an event there in May but are looking for more information.  The club's VP will be getting the requirements to me via e-mail and I will see her again on Sunday.  A couple of the board members came up to me and asked about upcoming events and one expressed a desire to become an instructor. 8)  I passed out a number of the magazine reprints to board members and they were very receptive.  Nothings official yet but I guess I would start planning on another May Appleseed in the heart of the Twin Cities metro area. ;)

     The ship is sinking (surely at least some of these folks see it) - and the response is "May"?

     Hope none of these folks is in emergency medical care... >:( :)

     You guys do the best you can - maybe there's a chance for an informal 'mini' prior to May, to ramp up some enthusiastic locals to help "get the word out".

     At "May" - if it happens - be sure to ask for a "fall" AS if possible (prob won't be; folks like this will prob have the club weekend sched "all booked up").

     And suggest "more than one" AS in 2011, if any of us is still around. ;D

     Always do the suggesting very low-key - even whispering - so you don't seem to be pressuring anyone.

     PS: Any chance of an AS for 4/17-18/10? Could be a great selling point - about how clubs like to be on the nationwide sched for that coast-to-coast event - and most clubs view it as an honor and a privilege to be on the AS sched that weekend - we only have 200 slots - and in the past have had to turn clubs away for that date... Just a thought.
"Ready to eat dirt and sweat bore solvent?" - Ask me how to become an RWVA volunteer!

      "...but he that stands it now, deserves the thanks of man and woman alike..."   Paine

     "If you can read this without a silly British accent, thank a Revolutionary War veteran" - Anon.

     "We have it in our power to begin the world over again" - Thomas Paine

     What about it, do-nothings? You heard the man, jump on in...

vmt193

Fred

We do plan to have 2 on the schedule for April 17-18, one north, one south. I think we could do another if we can round up the instructors. The one draw-back that is slowly changing is that so far, except for one shoot in the metro area, all shoots have been in one tiny corner of the state. The Hinckley AS next month is stretching us a bit to the north and we have two new venues already scheduled for the westcentral and northeast parts of the state next spring. Next year should see a lot of growth in the Minnesota program.

vmt

AFTERMATH

Location              2008     2009      2010
""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""
Winona                  1          2           2
Elk River                 0          1           2
La Crescent            0          1           4
Hinckley                 0          1           8
Duluth                   0          0            3
Marshall                 0          0            2
Oakdale                 0          0            1
West Branch           0          0            2
Roseville                 0          0            2
Cambridge              0          0             2
"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""
Total                     1          5             28 :o

This would test the limits of our capacity for sure.
We don't have nearly enough staff, yet.
However the actual set-up of shoots seems quite reasonable.

So how about it Minnesota?
Are we up to it?
Rally round the lake!
"We intend to produce men who are able to light a fire for Liberty in men's minds, and make them the finest rifle marksmanship Instructors on the planet." - Son of Martha

"Tyrants rise and fall, but tyranny lasts forever." -Me

[What kind of megalomaniac quotes himself?]

Fred

Quote from: AFTERMATH on September 24, 2009, 11:23:32 PM
This would test the limits of our capacity for sure.
We don't have nearly enough staff, yet.

     Go back and read my original post.

     You're doing "Step 1" of "crunching the numbers" - and look what you get. I bet that "28" surprised some people who see it.

     So, clearly, "number crunching" can be very useful to identifying how fast you can let this program grow in your state.

     But number-crunching the AS way is a two-step process, as I state (and illustrate) in the post.

      Now, you gotta go on to "Step 2", which is projecting the number of IBCs/IITs you'll be having in the next year - hopefully, one before the year is out - even if you have to send them to WI or IL to get to one.

     Adding 6 instructors to the MN IC (Instructor Corps) would make a big difference. Did I say "6"? Anyone want to say "12"?

    If you figure an average of 4 IITs out of an IBC, you can quickly figure how many IBCs you need. And start working on scheduling them, and pushing people to sign up for them...
"Ready to eat dirt and sweat bore solvent?" - Ask me how to become an RWVA volunteer!

      "...but he that stands it now, deserves the thanks of man and woman alike..."   Paine

     "If you can read this without a silly British accent, thank a Revolutionary War veteran" - Anon.

     "We have it in our power to begin the world over again" - Thomas Paine

     What about it, do-nothings? You heard the man, jump on in...