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1st Hit Probability

Started by wildman, January 08, 2009, 10:28:53 PM

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wildman

Hits count! 1st round hits count more! The idea is simple divide the number of 1st round hits by the number targets engaged. Shoot at 100 targets hit 80 of them with the first round that's a 80% 1st hit probability. That's how it will work at next year field shoots. We will have a course of fire with at least 30 targets at each of the field shoots. The scores for that one course will be used to rank shooters the other exercises will not be counted. Shooters must attend at least 4 of the 7 shoots including the WW2SC & the KWSC to be considered for "Morgans Crew". The top three shooters will be selected.
This is my rifle. There are many like it but this one is mine.... "My Rifle" the creed of a US Marine by MG WH Rupertus,USMC

Talon

Quote from: wildman on January 08, 2009, 10:28:53 PM
Hits count! 1st round hits count more! The idea is simple divide the number of 1st round hits by the number targets engaged. Shoot at 100 targets hit 80 of them with the first round that's a 80% 1st hit probability. That's how it will work at next year field shoots. We will have a course of fire with at least 30 targets at each of the field shoots. The scores for that one course will be used to rank shooters the other exercises will not be counted. Shooters must attend at least 4 of the 7 shoots including the WW2SC & the KWSC to be considered for "Morgans Crew". The top three shooters will be selected.

The Wildman will be talking about this event, and upcoming Ramsuer shoots, very soon on Appleseed Radio.


wildman

I received a PM from a Appleseeder who ask me the following:

"I just read about the 1st hit scoring system for next year. What is the purpose of that? Will appleseed become competitive?"

I thought the question a fair one and wanted to share the question and the answer.

No,the field shoots are not appleseed events. RWVA is the sponsoring organization of the appleseed program it also sponsors the field shoots. Fred allows me to post on this site because he is a wonderful guy.

What would we be competing against; each other? Think about. We are not competing against each other but we are competing against our last shot. We are competing against our own devils. The devils that keep us from using the six steps, building good positions, and doing the other things that make up a successful shot. I see no problem with recognizing folks that work hard to make that happen. Anyone can do it it only takes a desire and lots of practice.

This is my rifle. There are many like it but this one is mine.... "My Rifle" the creed of a US Marine by MG WH Rupertus,USMC

Old Dog

What should competition be?

To me, when I shoot with someone who is a better shot, I try to look at what that person is doing that makes their groups smaller, or makes their bullets hit the intended target more often.  When you get beat, usually you are beating yourself.  Don't look at getting beat on the scorecard as a defeat.  Look at it as a sign (remember the talking targets) that you need to do better.

Don't look for reasons to stop (quit), look for reasons to improve.  It'll be a lot more fun that way.

See you there.

PS.  It shouldn't turn into an equipment race.  You can't really buy better accuracy until you are good enough that your rifle is holding you back.  As long as you are not shooting that rifle to it's full potential you are fooling yourself and throwing money away if you are trying to "buy" accuracy.  Get off the couch, start instructing at Appleseeds and watch the guys with the (pretty doggone) plain rifles outshoot the guys with the high dollar rifles, optics and ammo.  I see it pretty often.  My rifle is a Greek return rack grade M1.  I put a cheap ($47) pistol scope on it because my eyes no longer see the front sight clearly and when I do my part it puts a clip of 30+ year old Greek surplus ball ammo inside the black 1" square at 25 meters.  Why do I need a $2400 rifle with a $1500 scope and Federal Match ammo?  Think of all the Greek surplus ammo I could buy with that!! ;D
"The rifle itself has no moral stature, since it has no will of its own. Naturally, it may be used by evil men for evil purposes, but there are more good men than evil, and while the latter cannot be persuaded to the path of righteousness by propaganda, they can certainly be corrected by good men with rifles."

—Jeff Cooper, The Art of the Rifle

wildman

#4
Boy do I understand the eye thing instead of crying about it do what you did and do something. 

I agree with you... it ain't the rifle there use to be a red coat target hanging at the range in Ramseur that was shot with a 91/30 all the holes were in the red including the 250 square. If a 91/.30 was all I had that's what I would shoot.

This is a picture of an M48 that was put together for less than 300 umgots. This rifle shot a 88.9 % 1st hit probability at the last KWSC. If the knucklehead shootin' it hadn't shot at a 400yd target with the 300yd dot it would have been 91.6 %.

Thanks for the post

[attachment=1]
This is my rifle. There are many like it but this one is mine.... "My Rifle" the creed of a US Marine by MG WH Rupertus,USMC

VAshooter

Say what you want Old Dog.

There are a lot of super accurate rifles out there and all I need is one lottery hit and they would be resting quitly in my safe. Waiting for the weekend.

Yea, I know we can all shoot a Rifleman score with a rack grade rifle but them high dollar toys are fun, and they'll shoot a Rifleman score too.

VAshooter

Nickle

There's a difference between NEED and NICE TO HAVE.

My .308 Rem 600 is certainly nothing I NEED, but is very comforting to have. Of course, all that's left from Remington is the action, and that's been trued and tweaked. Hart S/S barrel and a McMillan stock. Right at 10 pounds even with a T-6 Weaver scope, and deadly accurate. I built it as a competition rifle, IBS Hunter, and yes, that's Bench Rest score shooting. Of course, the X-Ring is a .062" dot (at 100 yards, mind you).
They have men amongst them who know very well what they are about, having been employed as Rangers against the Indians and Canadians and this country being much covered with wood, and hilly, is very advantageous for their method of fighting. . . . ".  Lord Percy

Sounds like New Englanders to me.

wildman

VA you make a good point I am not against high dollar toys. I am against the idea that you have to have a high dollar toy to play. The best rifle in the world won't shoot any better than the guy behind the sights. To me it was a joy to realize I had gotten to the point I was out shooting the rifle then I moved up to a better one.

Nickle I wish you lived closer it would be a treat to see you shoot.
This is my rifle. There are many like it but this one is mine.... "My Rifle" the creed of a US Marine by MG WH Rupertus,USMC

Son of Martha

And speakin' of equipment races--

What is the accuracy standard gonna be for this years' RWVA shoots, Wildman?  Is 4 MOA gonna be the target size, or do I need to go ahead and put a laser sight on my SKS?  ('Cuz you KNOW that makes it so much more accurate...just ask the gun banners... ::))

SoM
Raise ye the stone or cleave the wood to make a path more fair or flat
Lo, it is black already with blood some Son of Martha spilled for that
Not as a ladder from earth to Heaven, nor as a witness to any creed
But simple service, simply given, to his own kind in their common need.

Nickle

Quote from: wildman on January 09, 2009, 03:43:22 PM

I am against the idea that you have to have a high dollar toy to play. The best rifle in the world won't shoot any better than the guy behind the sights. To me it was a joy to realize I had gotten to the point I was out shooting the rifle then I moved up to a better one.

100% correct. I'll say that when you're outshooting the rifle, or outshooting the course of fire, it's time to find a new discipline. Now, that means when you're shooting a consistent 250 here. If you're just shooting 245 consistently (I don't, but we have a local guy that does), then there's still room to improve.

Quote from: wildman on January 09, 2009, 03:43:22 PMNickle I wish you lived closer it would be a treat to see you shoot.

"Would have been" is the proper term. I haven't done that kind of competition in about 20 years. Too expensive for my wallet. Not the basic equipment, nor the traveling to events. The components and time to stay in practice, along with the barrels I'd wear out at $300 a pop. And, I was just a normal level shooter, for that bunch.

I'm still getting the skills back, slowly.

(A lesson, never let your shooting skills lapse, they can be gotten back, but it gives persistence and perseverence a whole new meaning. Carlos Hathcock has been quoted as saying the skills can't be gotten back. He was wrong.)

My father was the one to watch, until he pretty much quit shooting a few years ago. He's 83 now, so, you really can't blame him.
They have men amongst them who know very well what they are about, having been employed as Rangers against the Indians and Canadians and this country being much covered with wood, and hilly, is very advantageous for their method of fighting. . . . ".  Lord Percy

Sounds like New Englanders to me.

Junior Birdman

   I wish I was going to be able to join the "First Rounders" Wildman! I know y'all will have alot of fun and learn a lot.  Don't pass this one up guys!  The 25m AQT grounds you in the basics. This stuff will teach you to SHOOT!
"But a Constitution of Government once changed from Freedom, can never be restored. Liberty, once lost, is lost forever." John Adams

Find out just what any people will quietly submit to and you have the exact measure of the injustice and wrong which will be imposed on them. Fredrick Douglass

Fred

Quote from: Nickle on January 09, 2009, 04:38:15 PM
I'll say that when you're outshooting the rifle, or outshooting the course of fire, it's time to find a new discipline. Now, that means when you're shooting a consistent 250 here. If you're just shooting 245 consistently (I don't, but we have a local guy that does), then there's still room to improve.


    Actually, in the Appleseed program, every time you can consistently shoot over 210 on the QD AQT, it's time to get out of the deck chair, and start instructing...working to save your country. Unless that is, you like the way things are spinning out of control.

     O0
"Ready to eat dirt and sweat bore solvent?" - Ask me how to become an RWVA volunteer!

      "...but he that stands it now, deserves the thanks of man and woman alike..."   Paine

     "If you can read this without a silly British accent, thank a Revolutionary War veteran" - Anon.

     "We have it in our power to begin the world over again" - Thomas Paine

     What about it, do-nothings? You heard the man, jump on in...

Nickle

Quote from: Fred on January 09, 2009, 06:52:16 PM
Quote from: Nickle on January 09, 2009, 04:38:15 PM
I'll say that when you're outshooting the rifle, or outshooting the course of fire, it's time to find a new discipline. Now, that means when you're shooting a consistent 250 here. If you're just shooting 245 consistently (I don't, but we have a local guy that does), then there's still room to improve.


    Actually, in the Appleseed program, every time you can consistently shoot over 210 on the QD AQT, it's time to get out of the deck chair, and start instructing...working to save your country. Unless that is, you like the way things are spinning out of control.

     O0

Truth be known, you need to do both.

Pass the knowledge on (instructing).

Improve your skills to make you even better.
They have men amongst them who know very well what they are about, having been employed as Rangers against the Indians and Canadians and this country being much covered with wood, and hilly, is very advantageous for their method of fighting. . . . ".  Lord Percy

Sounds like New Englanders to me.

Koma

 Who all is going to this fine, in the pines, one of a kind, place to unwind, hopefull sunshine and we'll be kind to all that make it to the line,  shoot

wildman

Looks like were going to have a good bunch on the 21st. There is a high noise level. I have already made up the score cards for the Morgans Crew Qualification / 1st Hit Probabilities. This is going to be a great year.
This is my rifle. There are many like it but this one is mine.... "My Rifle" the creed of a US Marine by MG WH Rupertus,USMC

Dirty Bill

A couple of questions... What targets will be used? Is there a schedule somewhere of all the events? I would like to attend these shoots.
"On the plains of hesitation lie the blackened bones of countless millions,who at the dawn of victory,sat down to rest,and while resting,Died.

"Watch the Wind..."

Old Dog

What time does it start?  When should we be there?  I'm trying to get a couple of folks talked into it but may not be successful.
"The rifle itself has no moral stature, since it has no will of its own. Naturally, it may be used by evil men for evil purposes, but there are more good men than evil, and while the latter cannot be persuaded to the path of righteousness by propaganda, they can certainly be corrected by good men with rifles."

—Jeff Cooper, The Art of the Rifle

wildman

Old Dog check out my new post on the Tim Murphy Field Shoot.
This is my rifle. There are many like it but this one is mine.... "My Rifle" the creed of a US Marine by MG WH Rupertus,USMC

Talon

This is for boltgun71's sights:



He'll probably still win.



Son of Martha

Oh, did we forget to mention?  Boltgun has to do this with a 20 gauge and punkin balls.

Really.  It's in the rules.

SoM
Raise ye the stone or cleave the wood to make a path more fair or flat
Lo, it is black already with blood some Son of Martha spilled for that
Not as a ladder from earth to Heaven, nor as a witness to any creed
But simple service, simply given, to his own kind in their common need.

scuzzy

QuoteWhat would we be competing against; each other?

This ain't gonna turn in to another Texas Vs. Kalifornia thing is it? Hope so, I'm all for that.  I got a highly accurate sling shot good for 25m. Open sights ta boot. Still gotta get a sling for it though.

An Armed Society is a polite society. Heinlein.