A New York Calling

[kDan]

Alright some time has passed since a dis-heartening number of our elected officials illegally crammed through an unconstitutional pile of laws that had half us crying in our beers, half us looking for real estate west of the Delaware (keep a light on lads!), and half peekin through the curtains for a piece of yard where nobody'll notice a hole's been dug. 

But if you haven't heard, here's the latest - Governor Cuomo's approval rating has gone from seventy something percent a couple weeks ago to fifty something as of yesterday morning.  That's nice yeah that's good and I guess it looks like he'll never be president (HA!).  So, that part of his plan seems to be falling apart and maybe if he could do it again, he'd be different, but...

The laws are there now.  There are lawsuits challenging many aspects of the laws and the way they were passed, but...  the laws are there.  Liberty minded folks outside the state is looking at us with a mixture of pity and disgust.  I take note while publicly choosing to ignore the cowardly keyboard insults, but I don't need pity and my own disgust could only be worse if we let these laws stand.  We have been handed a new responsibility as Americans, a responsibility that is ours and ours alone as residents of New York State.  We need to gum up the works!  We may not win this fight early, but we can give this rough beast a black eye before it slouches off to mess with everybody else, and we'll all come to our senses before anybody has to get stupid.  This is our chance!  They wanna start here?  FINE!  We may be outvoted, but it only takes a few of us to make a stink, and we are right!

I don't think much is going to happen at the national level right away, and it will take a while, probably a number of years, but we can have these laws repealed.  Here's how; here's the secret.  There are so many people in this state that don't care about gun laws, and I don't blame them!  It's not that they are dumb or malicious or even misguided or apathetic.  It just doesn't come up in their life and they don't know from spit, haven't been motivated to think about it.  They don't care about guns like I don't care about football.  Ask your average American what they think of the assault weapons ban and they are more likely to reply with something like, "Whatever," than they are to scream in protest or give the thumb's up with a wink.  It's easy for your average fella to just not care about guns.  If they have an opinion at all, I think most of them lean our way, and if they lean the other way, it's probably under "Assault Hypnosis", and who can blame somebody for being hypnotized?  If you find somebody that's been hypnotized you should help a brother out!  And what's it take... one percent to be outraged, two percent?   Three?

Time is on our side.  It must be.  It cannot be any other way.  This was a desperate grab, an over-reach.  We need to think about what we'd like to see and begin to make it happen.  You're all Appleseeders, so you don't need to be told to write your reps and to call radio shows and sign petitions and paint signs and stand in front of buildings and wave flags.  And talking to each other is great, but get out of your comfort zone without yelling at people that don't deserve it.  Show people you're reasonable and explain some small thing in simple terms.

[slim]

Good luck to you guys, brother. If there's a way we can help you from the heartland, please let us know.

[Fred]

Time is on our side.  It must be.  It cannot be any other way.  This was a desperate grab, an over-reach.  We need to think about what we'd like to see and begin to make it happen.  You're all Appleseeders, so you don't need to be told to write your reps and to call radio shows and sign petitions and paint signs and stand in front of buildings and wave flags.  And talking to each other is great, but get out of your comfort zone without yelling at people that don't deserve it.  Show people you're reasonable and explain some small thing in simple terms.

   I don't know if time is on our side or not (I suspect not), but the rest of this rings true, only for gosh's sake, get busy and make some more Appleseeders.

    The more of them you make, the more of them you have, and the more of that tireless, irate minority which never quits (which is what us Appleseeders are) and which is needed to get things rolling in the right direction - I say, the more of them you make in the coming months and years, the better off you are - and the better off the rest of the country is.

[Another D.O.M.]

Yeah - what KDan said.

Seriously, though, there's a good bit of truth in his words.  The average American isn't either pro or agin' - they're just trying to live the good life the best they know how.  If 'guns' aren't a part of that life, they just don't think about the issue.

Our job is to make 'em think about it.  Bring it into their living room by changing the focus from 'Gun Rights' to 'Civil Rights', and 'The Bill of Rights'.

Our job is to educate the masses.  In any way we can, with whatever resources we have available to us.  At my last Appleseed, my gift to the attendees was a package containing a pocket U.S. Constitution (with all the bells & whistles), a printout of The Militia Act of 1903, and a CD containing the MP3 files of Thomas Paine's Common Sense in MP3 format.  The first two are the law, and the third an explanation of why they are the law.  I brought a few copies of the Constitutions into work this morning and left them on a table in the break room.  They disappeared rather quickly, a clear indication that my co-workers, at least, want to learn.

It seems to me, from my experience, that most folks don't know that the U.S. Constitution is the Fundamental Law of the Land, and that no other law can supersede it.  They don't know that any law that is at odds with this Constitution is unenforceable; and that the determination of what is unconstitutional is not up to a court, it is the responsibility of The People.

These aren't just my opinions, they are what the founders of this great Republic intended, as evidenced by their writings.

So what I'm saying is, educate yourself first, if you need to; and then educate your friends, neighbors, and fellow Americans.  Be professional.  Know what the facts are, don't make them up.  Be passionate (the only emotion you are allowed).  Lead by example.  You've seen how powerful one educated, well spoken individual can be - imagine the force projected by 200 million of them!

[kDan]

Thanks, Slim.  We're fighting as much for you guys out there as we are for ourselves. 

And thanks, Mark.  That is exactly what I'm talking about.  Education.  There is a difference between stupidity and ignorance.  Stupidity cannot be fixed and you can't blame somebody for being stupid, just try to keep them from becoming dangerous.  Ignorance can be fixed, but it's up to the informed to do it.

And of course Fred is right, of course time is not on our side.  What I should have said is that it hasn't run out.  Fred, please understand that around here, some of us have been feeling that it had.  I certainly don't want to imply that these disgraceful laws make our mission any less urgent.  Quite the contrary.  I hope it's not even some small disservice to our mission to assume those assembled here already know that things are bad and getting worse, but I'm not here preach to our little chorus.  If you are on this web-site for any reason other than curiosity, then you know that the time to act is now, and hopefully you already started yesterday.  If you haven't then I don't have time to beg you to do so anyway.  There are bigger fish to catch, educate, and release.  If we could get enough people to stand up and shout, then we could change these laws tomorrow.  But here's the thing...  we don't have enough people.  A few radicals gathered, chanting "U!  S!  A!" on the steps of the state capital isn't going to cut it.  I mean, I'll be there and you should too, but we need more than that, and there should be better ways to increase our numbers.

There's a little routine I like to run at Appleseeds.   I ask my enthralled and patient watchful listeners, "What would you do if you were awakened in the middle of the night by some stranger - an apparent fanatic - screaming at the top of his lungs in the middle of the street for two minutes and then speeding away?  You'd curse his mad dark presence and go back to sleep, wouldn't you?  Human nature will not enable that myth in the manner or our alarm riders on the eve of Lexington and Concord."

What I mean when I say we have time, and that the thing to do is some small thing, is that we need to talk sense to people, methodically.  Desperation is not a good look for anybody and anger thrown about is resented.  If the folks who don't understand us, or maybe never even think about us, who never give rifles a second thought, if they could vaguely sense what we already know and grasp just a hint of the importance of our stand, then the unintended consequence of their disinterest can be avoided.

There's an ancient saying, "time is hard to find and easy to lose".  I think the New England puritans could have added a third leg about the efficiency of it's use.  We should be careful not to lose it all talking to each other about how much everything sucks.

I'm not saying don't be angry.  O, be angry my brothers and sisters.  You have been wronged by criminals in the night and publicly blamed for their crimes.   The way we will win this fight is by being right, which we are, and by letting it be known, which we must do.  The time to explain ourselves has not run out.  Most people just don't get it!

[jmdavis]

Short clip on reaction from Western New York. Good luck Kdan and the other New Yorkers.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTdhVxva5KU&list=UUUSd6KeUU1qE11NV0pOS9KQ&index=1

[Birdman]

jmdavis, I was just going to post that! You guys in New York got dealt a crap sandwich for sure. This must not spread-kill it!

kdan, you were my first Shoot Boss, Minerva, OH  gravel pit, your white rental car, my wayward canopy. Ahhhh, memories!
Best of luck to all of you in New York, we will do what we can from where we are.

I live close to the PA border and took a short drive over to a meeting in McKean, PA, with congressmen Kelly and Thompson, for a question and answer session. Over 500 pro-gun rights supporters showed up. Cars were parked for a mile on each side.
Here is a short video:
http://video.goerie.com/?pl_id=24682&va_id=3922601
Hey, not my state, can't vote for them, but I went, just to be another warm body. I was able to hand out a few Appleseed tri-folds while there.

I must say, I am getting tired of folks, even gun-owning folks, doing absolutely NOTHING to stand up to the gun-grabbing politicians. Some of these folks I work with, own "assault" rifles and who knows what else. I ask if they have written any emails or called our congressmen. The answer? no. The ship is sinking! SOS! Do something!
You guys probably feel the same, I'm sure.
Keep bailing in New York and I will do so in Ohio.

[Johnnyappleseed]

It bears repeating that TomnGreshams www.guntalk.com has annual memberships for 25 and lifetime for $300.
In addition Tom donates $ 10 to 2nd amendment  foundation for each annual sold .
The below unbiased link indicates NRA is a good place to put a few bucks .After Appleseed of course.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/brucerogers/2013/02/01/nra-winning-the-influence-battle-over-gun-control/

Good luck fellow Americans  ,if we can help ,please post your requests.

[Two Wolves]

My heart goes out to you guys in New York.      Just when I thought it couldn't get worse, I was hit with this info.  It seems that the dealers at the Shot Show were asking their suppliers when they would be shipping to them. The answer may shock you. ATK industries is the major manufacturer of ammo. They supply brands like Federal, CCI, Blazer and quite a few more. Our government has put them under contract to supply them with a huge amount of ammo. The catch is , the government gives them a real sweet deal but the conditions of the contract state that the government contract gets fulfilled first and that if the manufacturer supplies ammo to anybody else then the contract is void. The number I got was in the millions. This effectively dries up our ammo supply. You may have read where the government just ordered 7,000 ar's. They also put Troy Industries under the same type of contract. This dries up a major player in the AR business. Is all of this true? I don't know for sure and I don't know how to research it. What I can say for sure is that my source for this info is the owner of a respectable manufacturing company who's dependant in some ways on the before mentioned resourses. So, while we're fighting for the second admendment, they are secretly taking away our suppliers. 

[Johnnyappleseed]

Barring any really weird stuff ,the ammo supply will return to previous levels .

Getting an attainable 10% of gunowners will solve the political problems for the for near future.
9 million NRA members will back the anti s off .

Since ammo is so expensive ,lets use the $ 25 NRA membership as a selling point.
Not a AS affiliated of course.

[Transform]

Barring any really weird stuff ,the ammo supply will return to previous levels .

Eventually. But it might take quite a while. And supply might return at a higher price point than before.

Think about the macroeconomic, microeconomic, and political factors:
- Plenty of people are now stocked up for life, reducing demand.
- Commodities prices and futures indicate a long-term trend towards higher metals prices.
- The depreciating dollar will continue to raise raw materials prices.
- Third-world demand continues to increase, creating an ongoing basis for supply scarcity.
- Once the current scare is over and people start to sell off stockpiles, prices may be depressed, reducing market incentives to ramp up production just at the time we would expect an increase.
- Economic conditions make it difficult for new players to enter large-scale manufacturing.
- Plus what Two Wolves said. The long-term contracts appear designed to reduce supply.

Therefore, I'm expecting prices to remain high for several years, and quantities scarce for at least a year.
All of the above arguments can be refuted, and I hope I'm wrong, but the ship is sailing into strong headwinds.

[Spartan]

 I think the great thing about this whole NY SAFE ACT is this:  Like Pearl Harbor it has awoken the entire country to a level that we have not seen in sometime.  It proves to the other 49 states that they can in fact have their rights taken from them like a thief in the night.  Nationally, it has helped support our freedoms at the grassroots level in every state and Nationally.  We may have been an early battle in the war that has been lost.  Our history as American Patriots is filled with early losses.  We come back.  We get better.  We don't stop.  We figure out a way to win.  We may not have the combat power politically to win in New York for some time but this travesty in NY State has "awoken a sleeping Giant in the rest of the Country."  It does in fact help defend the country against the Gun legislation that is proposed on a National Level.  We have a new national call to Arms with a definitenous of purpose that did not exist two months ago.  We can win.  We are winners.

[Two Wolves]

I sent that video to everyone in my address book. I'm hoping it will go viral here in the states!

[Hinermad]

Therefore, I'm expecting prices to remain high for several years, and quantities scarce for at least a year.
All of the above arguments can be refuted, and I hope I'm wrong, but the ship is sailing into strong headwinds.

I concur, unfortunately. Manufacturers facing resource scarcity (both in materials and production capacity) aren't going to spend what resources they have on inexpensive products with a low profit margin. I think it'll probably be the end of Remington Gold Bullets (which I won't miss much), but it will also mean that $15 - $20 bricks of anything will become rare for a while.

Dave

[jmdavis]

Think about the macroeconomic, microeconomic, and political factors:
- Plenty of people are now stocked up for life, reducing demand.

I don't know who you hang out with or how old they are.  but few people I know are stocked for life. The competitive shooters that I know hope that they have enough to get them through two seasons.

All Eley, CCI,  RWS, Wolf and SK match rimfire are sold out right now. Hornady, Sierra and Nosler 75, 77 and 80 gr. .223 bullets are unavailable. No Hornady, Sierra or Nosler 168 or 175 bullets are available. No brass is currently available in .223. .308 LC ammo is selling for $750/1k.

A friends sold some of his stash of Remington White Box Target .22lR ammo recently. This ammo was $99 per case from CMP last year and $125 per case from CMP in October. In 4 days CMP sold 60,000,000 rounds. My friend sold several cases for $35 a brick and was sold out in less than 2 hours at a gun show yesterday.

No, I don't know too many people that are stocked for life. Most are just hoping to have enough components or rimfire ammo to get through a couple of years until (we hope) things return to normal.

[Transform]

I don't know who you hang out with or how old they are.  but few people I know are stocked for life.

Personally, I'm one of those "just hoping to have enough" to even get through this year. Sadly, I've had to sharply curtail my visits to the range, and I probably won't be able to shoot at many 'Seeds this year unless things change.
But I've spoken with several people who stocked up with far more than they will ever need. It's Econ 101:  Fear of shortages tends to cause shortages. I truly wish I'd had the foresight to stock up; I'd be at the range right now!

[Another D.O.M.]

There's some really good dialog here - thanks guys!

That video should scare the crap out of anyone who thinks this will just blow over in a few weeks and we'll just bend over and say "Thak you Sir!  May I have another?"

In case anyone is wondering, I can answer the questions raised about penalties.  After the effective date, if you're caught with an unregistered 'illegal' magazine it's a misdemeanor and a fine.  However, if you decide not to destroy, dispose of, sell or register your WWII C&R Ljungman, for example, and you get caught with it in your possession, that's a felony if convicted and you lose most of the rest of your rights as a consequence.  From all appearances, to the reasonable person the intent of this absurdity had little to do with stopping mass shootings in schools, malls or theaters.

I've received a request to attache the cleaned up copy of The Militia Act of 1903 somewhere on the forum - so here it is.  I'll attempt to make the Common Sense audio files available as well - stay tuned.

[Another D.O.M.]

I'm not sure if this will work or not - DropBox is a bit different from Google Docs...

Thomas Paine's Common Sense audio files

[Dude]

works fine, Mark-just 1 little extra step and it goes right into itunes & ipod. THANKS!!

[R1SGx2]

radicals gathered, chanting "U!  S!  A!"
Not sure if we were radicals. That was my chant, (video evidence) as with that rally and more so with the next two, we are lining up guest speakers to educate the mass, the 19th of January was 4 days to react, 4000 responded to that alarm - AND THANK YOU EVERYONE ONE OF YA's. The chants were to pump up the crowd AND help keep them warm,,,,

These next two, time has helped us to line up speakers to inform/educate and yes there will be chants. A lot of disinformation out there on the internet and being spoke is hurting us. We need to stop it and educate them.

We are looking for a pro gun current or retired known baseball player or coach to attend the Feb 12th rally as speaker, it's an appearance thing, everyone loves BASEBALL, hotdogs and apple(pie)seed.

I lost my 5 gallon bailing bucket a long time ago, this 55 gallon barrel is very heavy, we need help, SOS is out,,,,,, This is the current battle road. The powder alarm is sounding. All the other states / this CAN happen to you.

Good stuff here by all, kDan, thank you for starting this thread, A/DOM - thank you for taking it to a higher level...

Stay Focused,,,,,,,,

mark

[Lawrence]

My heartfelt prayers are for each and all of my NY friends as they face difficult decisions. Thanks kDan and great post Mark!

You are standing on Lexington Green but you are not armed with a musket. You are armed with the power and might of TRUTH!

Stand and fight the good fight of PEACE and TRUTH!  Ephisians 6:10-17

Your brothers in NC

[kDan]

Ammo is going to be a problem for a long, long time, and will always be expensive, according to Carnac the Magnificent.

That video of the meeting in upstate New York is amazing.  What a room full of informed people!

Mark, Brother, you did great in Albany!  And we were fired up!  I wasn't making fun, or challenging the uplift or unity of chanting "USA" - didn't you see me behind you chanting with my flag?  You know as well as anybody that has it's place but is not enough.  We've somehow got to get the word out to everybody else.  You know, and I know, and Cuomo knows, that it ain't just guns, it ain't hunting, it ain't even a matter of simple personal protection. 

I guess I'm talking about seventh stepping.  It may be time to circle the wagons, but we got other stuff to do too.

Oh yeah, by the way, we ARE the radicals I was referring to 

radical |ˈradikəl|
adjective
1 (esp. of change or action) relating to or affecting the fundamental nature of something; far-reaching or thorough : a radical overhaul of the existing regulatory framework.

However, our marginalization as "radicals" (notice the "quotes") in the mainstream is a problem.  Rhetoric scares me more than anything.  When the elected Governor of the state I was born in puts on his Hitler mustache and pounds a podium on national TV and screeches that we, gun-owners - the most American of all Americans - that we are the bad guys, and some of us respond saying "come and get us" - lord have mercy! - who has a full understanding of what is implied here!  This is the stuff of Greek legend, pride, misappropriation, and maybe worse.

I have not been in the military, and I have not seen combat, but I was on the streets when I was sixteen, and had to build from there.  I have fought for my life more than once.  I just want to be sure everyone is thinking clearly on this, because the logical result of this may not be pretty.  I know some quiet, patient men who will not run; I bet a couple of them are reading this right now.  I love you guys and I don't want to lose any of you to Pennsylvania.  God help anyone who has to make this choice.

It needs to be explained and explained again, not to politicians, but to our neighbors. 

In the words of the guys in the video, "What is the penalty for non-compliance?" 

Hopefully we all understand exactly what we're looking at.  It's not a matter of winning an argument.  New York may be lost, maybe not, but there's obviously hope (at least for the rest you); people are waking up.

What we need is for somebody like Stoner to walk in and flick on the switch, "Rise and Shine, Ladies!"

[kDan]

Another tidbit of New York Ammo trivia.  Westside Rifle and Pistol, where we run our Manhattan appleseeds, has a regular rifle course.  They run it four or five times a day and for about thirty people a day, if you average it over a week.  Everybody shoots a box of .22, fifty rounds.

Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but now they'll have to run a NICS check on every single person that comes through, including Appleseeders once a month.  Yet another New York business that cannot possibly benefit from the SAFE Act...  the only public range in NYC. 

[The Mrs.]

You might want to hiss me out of the room, but I do see a silver lining to all of this.  What happened as a result of Sir Andrew's Constitution breaking behavior is indeed disgusting.  But he might have done more to help our cause than 100 AS could do......he woke up the sleeping giant!!

There is much for us to do, and we can't back off.  But he did give us a gift wrapped in black paper, the awakening of NYS and America by extension.

[Another D.O.M.]

Another tidbit of New York Ammo trivia.  Westside Rifle and Pistol, where we run our Manhattan appleseeds, has a regular rifle course.  They run it four or five times a day and for about thirty people a day, if you average it over a week.  Everybody shoots a box of .22, fifty rounds.

Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but now they'll have to run a NICS check on every single person that comes through, including Appleseeders once a month.  Yet another New York business that cannot possibly benefit from the SAFE Act...  the only public range in NYC.

It's not a NICS check.  NY is reinventing the wheel by creating their own system, their own database, their own call center, etc. Last April Gov. Cuomo determined that there isn't enough money in the state budget to continue the failed CoBis system, which was costing state taxpayers millions.  Now the very same Governor Cuomo has replaced CoBis with something that will make millions in wasted funds look small by comparison - possibly tenfold what was squandered on the failed CoBis program - with a system that cannot have any effect on curbing crime.

As I read the new law, the background check (notice I didn't use 'criminal', as these checks will certainly also pry into a citizen's mental health records, healthcare records, DMV records, military service records, etc.) will be conducted on those who purchase ammo from a state licensed vendor; and only state licensed vendors may sell ammo in NY.  Unless Westside jumps through the hoops of becoming a NY licensed ammo vendor, it is likely they will be barred from providing ammo to their students.  Of course, there's no secret that a very large factor in the decision to push this thing through without the mandatory three day discussion period was to put mom & pop sporting goods stores out of business forever.  Currently small gun shops all over NY are sitting on literally millions of dollars worth of inventory that they can no longer sell after the effective date of the new laws.

The We the People website states the situation very succinctly:

It is treason to the Constitution for a Governor to falsify or manufacture the "facts" in his message of necessity in the interest of political expediency.

[Dude]

No one hissing you out of the room while I'm around! 

Surpassed Obama as the leading gun salesman in NYS; check

Woke some folks up; check

Maybe we'll have to step it up; maybe we'll have to run A/S in a bit different COF to get 'er done; maybe we'll have to take the point like the men in MASS had to do a couple hundred years ago, trying to wake up the other colonies, and having to drag them along. 

But, we probably won't have to face down the elite fighting forces of the world, probably won't have to march dozens of miles in the cold or succumb to the onslaught of a winter in Valley Forge.

We have it easy.

Thank God

[Scarecrow]

The government contracts to buy ammo create the shortage for us, indeed.
You do understand what that ammo they are buying is intended to be used for? 
http://www.infowars.com/dhs-purchases-21-6-million-more-rounds-of-ammunition/

[Dude]

I wonder how many rounds of 22LR Uncle Sam has ordered?

[Nero]

Before we go too far down the conspiracy path, I'd suggest that folks might want to look into the 'Beer Game':
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beer_distribution_game
http://supplychain.mit.edu/games/beer-game
http://www.beergame.org/

As well as being about one of my other favorite topics  it's a simulation of a multi-stage product distribution chain, and what happens when it gets thrashed by spikes in demand.  I've played it a couple of times, once in grad school and once while helping run an executive management seminar, and it's alternately hilarious and frustrating as h***.

Bottom line, Obama may be a great gun and ammo salesman, but he's trashing the heck out of the distribution chains for both.  It's simply the nature of how those systems are assembled.  But don't believe me, try the game!