Will current ammo supply situation impact Ohio AS attendance?

[Corvette]

.... and what, if anything, should we be doing about the situation?  If you are like me, you are looking forward to hitting the AS trail again in 2013.  We all have watched what is going on around the country regarding possible changes to the gun laws and we all have seen what it has done to the normal supply chain for ammo and rifles.  My question is if you assume that ammo supply uncertainty is going to be with us for most of 2013, do we think it will impact attendance?  If so, which groups of attendees do you think will be effected? and finally, what, if anything, should we do to anticipate and mitigate the impact on our attendance numbers?

I don't have answers, but with all the talk on the net regarding the unavailability of even 22 lr ammo, I gotta believe it will impact us and we should try to anticipate its effects. So, what is everybody seeing in their area as to ammo availability in your part of Ohio?  Anybody else think this is worth even kicking around ideas?  Just wanted to put it out there.  At least we are not NY where they will  have to change course of fire and procedures to deal with the 7 round limit.  God forbid, someone shows up with a Garand and doesn't have anything other than standard 8 round enblocs. 

Corvette

[Charles McKinley]

Western central PA (Ohio border along I-80) shelves are pretty bare.  Walmart ammo is gone almost as soon as it comes in.

Stores that have ammo have a brick a day limit.

[Pain Killer]

We will need more Libertyseeds to get the message out while ammo is hard to come by.


http://appleseedinfo.org/smf/index.php?topic=33982.0

PK

[SteelThunder]

Just read an assessment from a dealer in West Virginia that had been talking with distributors.  Their assumption is that ammo will be on allocation (e.g., selective availability) for a minimum of 9 months.  Now of course a lot of this depends on how long the current political situation lasts and when the folks that stocked up get sick of having all that money tied up in their basement. 

I expect it to hurt the first timer and casual shooter the most.  Often, they go out to Wally World the night before and buy value pack ammo.  They are going to get there and be in for a big surprise.  More "serious" shooters likely have a few bricks lying around.

How to deal with it?  LibertySeeds and lower round count shoots.  Expect that the numbers at shoots will be smaller and do more history presentations to touch as many/more people.

ST2

http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2013/01/update-status-of-gun-industry.html

UPDATE: Status of Gun Industry
Interesting status report from Valley Guns in West Virginia:
   Status of gun industry

    Attention F.B. fans: to follow will be several IMPORTANT Info updates about the status of the gun industry currently, followed by an INVENTORY UPDATE: We traveled to Texas for Industry meetings concerning the shortages, here's what we were told.

    Smith & Wesson-is running at Full capacity making 300+ guns/day-mainly M&P pistols. They are unable to produce any more guns to help with the shortages.

    RUGER: Plans to increase from 75% to 100% in the next 90 days.

    FNH: Moving from 50% production to 75% by Feb 1st and 100% by March 1. Remington-Maxed out!

    Armalite: Maxed out.

    DPMS: Can't get enough parts to produce any more product.

    COLT: Production runs increasing weekly...bottle necked by Bolt carrier's.

    LWRC: Making only black guns, running at full capacity...can't get enough gun quality steel to make barrels.

    Springfield Armory: Only company who can meet demand but are running 30-45 days behind.

    AMMO: Every caliber is now Allocated! We are looking at a nation wide shortage of all calibers over the next 9 months. All plants are producing as much ammo as possible w/ of 1 BILLION rounds produced weekly. Most is military followed by L.E. and civilians are third in line.

    MAGPUL is behind 1 MILLION mags, do not expect any large quantities of magpul anytime soon.

    RELOADERS... ALL Remington, Winchester, CCI & Federal primers are going to ammo FIRST. There are no extra's for reloading purposes... it could be 6-9 months before things get caught up. Sorry for the bleak news, but now we know what to expect in the coming months. Stay tuned, we'll keep you posted...


Related commentary from Bob Owens:

    They didn’t know when they’d be getting anything back in stock, from magazines to rifles to pistols. Manufacturers were running full-bore, but couldn’t come close to keeping up with market demand. It wasn’t just the AR-15s, the AK-pattern rifles, the M1As, and the FALs that were sold out. It really hit me when I realized that the World War-era M1 Garands, M1 carbines, and Enfield .303s were gone, along with every last shell. Ubiquitous Mosin-Nagants—of which every gun store always seems to have 10-20—were gone. So was their ammo. Only a dust free space marked their passing. I’ve never seen anything like it.

    Every weapon of military utility designed within the past 100+ years was gone. This isn’t a society stocking up on certain guns because they fear they may be banned. This is a society preparing for war.

[Unbridled Liberty]

I'm toying with an idea.  But let me say first: LIBRARYSEEDS.  Now to my concept:

Hold a one-day event, no rifles, no ammo.  Free, or nominal cost.  COI consists of history, SHF's, 6 steps, NPOA, IMC, maybe KD at the end for those who want to stay.  All demos done with inert dummy rifle with laser.  Venue can be almost anywhere that the dummy rifle won't freak anybody out.  Individuals are encouraged to try the positions with the dummy rifle.  At the end, squares are distributed, maybe red and/or greencoats also.  Safe dryfire drills are explained, then send shooters away, God Speed.  SB is available for Q&A via Facebook.

Next real Appleseed, they come with eye dominance established, scopes in the correct positions, combs built up (we show them why and how during the no-fire course), rifles sighted in, slings attached.  High percentage score Riflemen.  Less ammo needed.  The world is a better place.

Feedback?

UL

[jmdavis]

Unbridled Liberty.

Dry fire is good and your idea could do some good. But you can only go so far with dryfire. You need the feedback that you get from the paper to become a good shooter.

I have run many events that only fired 300 rnds or so and still produced 20-50% riflemen. You can do this through a combination of dryfire and live fire as part of your instruction.

For example...

Dryfire every COF before you live fire it during instruction. Once they have a good position. Really focus on their groups and use the combination to maximize the live fire exercises.  That means, the squares, the greencoats, the first day AQT's. If you do and your students take it seriously you will see better results than you have before.

To get them to take it seriously you can tell them the story of Lanny Bassham who was unable to shoot 50m rifle for 2 years before the 1978 Wold Championships. He overcame that limitation through serious dryfire and visualization. It worked for an Olympian to beat the rest of the world, so it can work for the rest of us if we are serious about it.

In a typical weekend, we would fire 100 to 120 rounds on Saturday and around 200 on AQT's on Sunday. Nothing is lost from spending more time on detailed instruction. I learned this method from a VAShooter, a double Distinguished rifle and pistol shooter who was also involved with Appleseed for several years.

In preparing for this years High Power Season. I dryfire 1 hour per night and also group shoot and live fire several nights a week at the indoor range and shoot silhouette and position practice on the weekends outdoors.   Some of the best shooters in the country over the past 4 decades have told me that is what it takes to develop and win.

Mike

[Unbridled Liberty]

Unbridled Liberty.

Dry fire is good and your idea could do some good. But you can only go so far with dryfire. You need the feedback that you get from the paper to become a good shooter.

I have run many events that only fired 300 rnds or so and still produced 20-50% riflemen. You can do this through a combination of dryfire and live fire as part of your instruction.

For example...

Dryfire every COF before you live fire it during instruction. Once they have a good position. Really focus on their groups and use the combination to maximize the live fire exercises.  That means, the squares, the greencoats, the first day AQT's. If you do and your students take it seriously you will see better results than you have before.

To get them to take it seriously you can tell them the story of Lanny Bassham who was unable to shoot 50m rifle for 2 years before the 1978 Wold Championships. He overcame that limitation through serious dryfire and visualization. It worked for an Olympian to beat the rest of the world, so it can work for the rest of us if we are serious about it.

In a typical weekend, we would fire 100 to 120 rounds on Saturday and around 200 on AQT's on Sunday. Nothing is lost from spending more time on detailed instruction. I learned this method from a VAShooter, a double Distinguished rifle and pistol shooter who was also involved with Appleseed for several years.

In preparing for this years High Power Season. I dryfire 1 hour per night and also group shoot and live fire several nights a week at the indoor range and shoot silhouette and position practice on the weekends outdoors.   Some of the best shooters in the country over the past 4 decades have told me that is what it takes to develop and win.

Mike

Maybe I didn't 'splain myself clearly.  No dry firing at the seedless Appleseed.  Except maybe with clicky pens.  We do all the normal instruction and demos with the normal inert dummy rifle.  Then we let 'em take turns and try the dummy while we coach and the others watch.  They learn what to do and what not to do.

The dry fire part comes at home, but we give a brief explanation before they leave on how to do it safely and what to use as targets.  Just like we do now.

We are improvising, adapting and overcoming "the great ammo crisis of '13".  The main point is that since we tell 'em up front "no rifles and no ammo needed", THEY COME.  And if nothing else, they hear the history.

UL

PS: I'm gonna do one and let 'yall know how it goes.

[Transform]

Free, or nominal cost.

Feedback?

Sounds like a great idea UL! The only limitation I see up front is that if it's free then we can't afford to incur costs for a shoot box (targets) or travel expenses. This might need to go the nominal cost route just to cover any expenses.

I wonder if we can do everything that you describe indoors, inside the library, at a LibrarySeed?